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polymarket
Jun 12, 2026
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Over the past two months, US President Donald Trump has sent mixed messages about negotiations with Iran, at times saying a peace deal was close and at other times threatening military action. A compilation by CNN found that Trump has claimed since March that an agreement with Iran was near or that peace was imminent at least 39 times. His public statements have repeatedly shifted between optimistic predictions, warnings of devastating military strikes if talks failed, and announcements of de-escalation shortly after issuing ultimatums. Despite his repeated claims that a breakthrough is imminent, no final agreement has been reached. Traders predict a 56% chance they will reach a permanent peace deal by the end of August.

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